Jackis' Nest 109 - Crypto exchanges shutting down

Hello everyone & welcome to the 109th release of the J’Nest & last one in July as we fully complete the transition towards Substack!

In the past week we saw the first canaries of a bear market to fall and it was two exchanges of BitMex & BitMart, where especially with BitMex it is insane to see given the fact it was the biggest exchange in the space just 6 years ago.

These exchanges are not failing from like a fraud collapse or something like during FTX but rather by the lack of volume & inactivity in the space.

This could be the first avalanche of things to come because keep in mind that so far we haven’t seen any major company give out in this bear phase, yet. And in each bear, some major company blew up sooner or later.

We are also running into an FOMC week, with a potential rate hike decision this or next meeting which is defo super important to observe as the US yields & DXY keep on rising higher & the geopolitical tensions with rising Oil prevail.

The Strait of Hormuz got closed once more & except a small June flow, it has been effectively closed since February putting a further upward pressure on the Oil prices.

And semiconductors have reached the most overbought level in history surpassing their dot-com bubble top.

All while the cash on the sidelines has hit the lowest levels in history as well & everyone is positioned in the market.

Let’s discuss

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OUTLINE

1. BTC Weekly

2. BTC Daily

3. BTC Funding Rate
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4. ETH Weekly

5. ETH Daily

6. COIN vs ETH
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7. Crypto exchanges shutting down

8. Cash on the sidelines
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9. FOMC
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10. McDonalds

11. Netflix
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12. Trading Psychology
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13. News
    

ABBREVIATIONS that I use at the end

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1) BTC Weekly

This just might be one of the most boring periods of BTC in a long while. Not really anything new has happened from the past week and so we wait for the market to make its move

We had another bullish candle but with a tight candle body.

Will quickly repeat our plan:

Overall Monthly & Weekly trend remains bearish and our current bias is therefore lower, we however are always watchful for a potential bottom and the current three drives around 60K resembles inversed top. The broader risk conditions do not favor upside however.

The key Weekly level for BTC sits above the mid June high where we look for either a Weekly sweep, rejection & potential shorts lower or we await for a break of this level for a bigger MTF push into even as high as 74K. Such a push would still not make us a HTF bullish but it could be a start

Mid June high at 67,3K is external Weekly liquidity & 61,8 to 61,3K is internal

2) BTC Daily

As discussed, after the initial push in July, BTC spent the rest of its time ranging here and slowly grinding upwards but moving nowhere either.

Currently it is facing internal resistance at 65,6K but not really somehow major one either

The levels are similar to Weekly but more detailed. We see the external liquidity above us in form of a last week high, the mid June high & the void create during the mid June sell-off. That liquidity is external to the current range