Jackis' Nest 110 - Bitcoin Cold Storage Hacked, $45B AI fund liquidated & BOJ & FED intervenes

Hi everyone & welcome to the 110th release of the J’Nest!

The past week was filled with plenty of events worth discussing.

Bitcoin cold storages of some users got hacked, regardless if they did everything right, affecting the trust in it

We also had an FOMC week & Japanesse intervention, both sending USDJPY & DXY plummeting while the long end US yields broke to the highest levels in 20 years and since before the Financial Crisis of 08, breaking out of a 3 year range.

And also the US is depleting its strategic oil reserves to keep Oil prices tamed, at least for now, preventing an explosion to two decade highs

We also had Monthly closes across the board, which imo gives out a lots of important details about the future direction of the crypto space so we gotta discuss those and as usual, as it is a new month, it is time to update my personal portfolio holdings.

Let’s discuss.

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OUTLINE

1. BTC Monthly

2. BTC Weekly

3. BTC/EUR & BTC/JPY

4. BTC Daily

5. ETH Monthly

6. ETH Weekly

7. ETH Daily

8. ETH H4

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9. Stablecoin Dominance

10. Bitcoin Coldcard Hack

11. Japan Intervention

12. FOMC report

13. Tesla

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14. My positioning

15. News

ABBREVIATIONS that I use at the end

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1) BTC Monthly

I had a question last week, why do we look at the Monthly TF & why it is so important.

The answer to that is pretty simple, the larger the TF, the higher the importance & relevance compared to lower timeframes to this. Monthly & Weekly are the most important ones when it comes to HTF bias. Daily in this context is noise & anything below is just irrelevant.

It is also really as simple as the fact that not everyone looks at LTF but nearly everyone looks at HTF & mainly big money that simply has to operate on larger TF because of its huge liquidity

So yeah, last month(s) I was discussing that we are likely to get a July squeeze and we have! And the region to watch for the bounce was exactly 67K and we got it precisely.

We bounced in that level & rejected.

Here you can see the rejection that has been as precise as the January one, that we discussed last month. That said, I thought we’d move rather quicker and instead we spent the entire July on the bounce & ranging.

So what to expect for August, potentialy September? These two months are definitely the most bearish ones when it comes to seasonality and not just for Bitcoin/Crypto but for Stocks as well.

Seasonality will not work every single year but there is definitely data behind it that sets the seasonality stats, so from my personal observations the best approach is simply to use it as a confluence against the current data of each year.

And the data is that we are in a bear market, we have created the first Monthly LL in years & have rejected from Monthly resistance again. So yeah it fits and fits a lot!

That obviously as I taught you many times already does not guarantee anything but for now, that is the current bias, the current risk in the market, alongside other stuff.

We still did not get that mid June Weekly swing high sweep yet, at least on the USD pair and more on that later so I still can’t fully reject the possibility of us still doing that in August, further prolonging this range but would expect lower by the end of it.

The next logical bearish target would be the significant low from August 24 at 49K. If we break the current lows at 59K that is very likely to come rather quickly.

To get a bullish Monthly close & get somewhat bullish bias, then August would have to close above 67K, any Monthly wick above & closure below, rather shows failed bullish auction above & rejection by the bears

Market is still in a bearish trend & therefore our bias remains as such as well.

2) BTC Weekly

The past week has brought us an engulfing rejection of the prior 3 weekly candle bodies.

No significant liquidity has been however taken yet, not the external above mid june highs & not the internal yet either.